Outbreak!
Who Spread the Flu?
Case Facts:
The week after Spring Break all 500 students and teachers at Contagious
High School in Contagious, Maryland went home sick with influenza (the
flu). It has been discovered that three students came back after Spring
Break, each had a different infectious flu. The rates at which each of
the flus can infect another person (Infection Rate) and the rates at
which a person with the flu gets better (Recovery Rate) are commonly
known for each of these strains. You have been asked to determine which
of the three originally infected students was the source of the flu that
was so virulent it affected nearly everyone in the school. You can solve this mystery by using a computer model that simulates the spread of the flu. You will find all of the information and the computer model below.
| Student Name |
Flu Strain |
Infection Rate |
Recovery Rate |
| Bobby Getwels |
Ick Flu |
.002 |
.5 |
| Amess Besick |
Plu Flu |
.001 |
.5 |
| Majorly Ruddy |
Gacky Flu |
.08 |
.2 |
Which student had the flu that caused everyone to get sick?
Approximately how many students would be infected by Bobby Getwels if he
was the only source of infection? by Amess Besick?
What is the relationship between the recovery rate and the shape of the
line for 'recovered'?
What is the relationship between the infection fate and the shape of the
line for 'infected'?
Can you predict which flu will infect more people: one with an Infection
rate of .001 or .002?
(Note: In addition to changing the infection and recovery rates in the model, you may also need to change the number of infected and susceptible people.)
Run the Flu Epidemic Model
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