Who Spread the Flu?

Case Facts:

The week after Spring Break all 500 students and teachers at Contagious High School in Contagious, Maryland went home sick with influenza (the flu). It has been discovered that three students came back after Spring Break, each had a different infectious flu. The rates at which each of the flus can infect another person (Infection Rate) and the rates at which a person with the flu gets better (Recovery Rate) are commonly known for each of these strains. You have been asked to determine which of the three originally infected students was the source of the flu that was so virulent it affected nearly everyone in the school. You can solve this mystery by using a computer model that simulates the spread of the flu. You will find all of the information and the computer model below.

Student Name Flu Strain Infection Rate Recovery Rate
Bobby Getwels Ick Flu .002 .5
Amess Besick Plu Flu .001 .5
Majorly Ruddy Gacky Flu .08 .2

Which student had the flu that caused everyone to get sick?
Approximately how many students would be infected by Bobby Getwels if he was the only source of infection? by Amess Besick?
What is the relationship between the recovery rate and the shape of the line for 'recovered'?
What is the relationship between the infection fate and the shape of the line for 'infected'?
Can you predict which flu will infect more people: one with an Infection rate of .001 or .002?

(Note: In addition to changing the infection and recovery rates in the model, you may also need to change the number of infected and susceptible people.)

Run the Flu Epidemic Model

Please enter values for the following parameters.
Then click on the "Run" button at the bottom of the page.

Runtime Values:

Number of susceptible people:
Number of infected people: Infection rate:
Number of people recovered: Recover rate:
Time step: Run Time (days)

Plotting Options

Image size:
(decimal percent)

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