Excel homework
-------------------Pam Valdes---------------------
1) a. In the Linear model, susceptible is starting at 234 and eventually over time lowers to only 84. So the blue line representing susceptible, on the graph, is going to be decreasing. While the red line representing the infected is having a constant increase. These two things do not have much in common but one thing. They both cross paths on one location on the graph. The reason that the blue line is decreasing is because the number of susceptible is decreasing. This is because as the number of infected increases that makes the number of people to have a change to get infected lower, since the people are already infected. That is also the reason that the red line on the graph increases.
b. In the Game model, the graphs were very unpredictable. The reason for this was because you could really never know how many people were going to get infected or recover. It was basically just a game of luck. When the red infected line dropped that meant that the yellow recovered line would rise. The blue susceptible line was always dropping because all the people that would always get infected or recover, was always changing. These lines were all going there own ways; this is because when one thing happened to them that meant that the other lines were either going to increase or decrease. The number of recovered was always trying to rise in both of the graphs, even though it would some times just stay constant, because no one was able to recover. The number of infected was everywhere, because as stated above it was very unpredictable due to the fact that people could become infected at any point of time.
c. In the SIR model 2, the graph was very basic. The reason I say this is because the lines were not as wild or unpredictable as they were with the last model. The susceptible line decreased a lot in a little amount of time. As for the recovered line it increased in a bit more amount of time. The infected line was did a backwards “v” shape. All of these lines had their own path and meaning. The number of susceptible dropped as it did on all the other models. This was because the number of people dropped as they were starting to become infected or recovered. The infected line began to rise a bit sooner than the recovered line because there has to be some infected people going around before they can be recovered. The reason I think that the infected line went up than came back down was because everyone was becoming recovered more quickly.
2)
a. The interaction rate is what makes the “agents” interact by a certain number or percent. If the interaction rate is high then the “agents” are going to have a greater chance to become infected or recover. This makes the model work faster. If the interaction rate is set to a lower number or percent then it will limit the “agents” from interacting; there for the number of infected or recovered is going to be lower.
b. The infection rate is what controls how easily the virus can infect the people. If the infection rate is high then that means that people will become infected very fast and then it will keep doubling. If the infection rate is changed to a lower number then people will have a lower chance of having the virus.
c. The recovery rate is what controls the number of people that will be able to recover. It is like setting how strong an antibiotic will be to a person who is sick. If it is set high than more people will be able to recover from this disease, but if the recovery rate is low than the people will have a lower chance of recovering.
4) When people start a rumor it get spread just as fast as a disease or a forest fire. It all starts with one person being mean and telling another person something. Then that person turns around and tells three of her friends. This can go on forever and ever. If this problem were to be a SIR model, the susceptible would be all the people in the school who can and might be informed of the rumor. The Infected part of the model would represent all the people who already know of this rumor. T he recovered part would be the people who at one point knew about this rumor but forgot it. The one person who is going to spread a rumor is going to be the birth of the infection. That means that once she starts to release it to other people, the number of susceptible is going to drop because they are now informed of the rumor. Once other people start to tell others it will greatly increase the number of infected people. The recovered number of people would not do anything yet because it would take some time to get people to forget the rumor. So over all, the rumor will multiply many times due to the number of people in the school who are telling all of their friends. So once time goes by the number of infected might slightly decrease and the number of recovered will increase. This is because the people that were told of the rumor will eventually forget about it.
