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This model shows the spread of the avian flu virus through a variety of organisms; the virus will be able to spread to different organisms after it has been mutated.
Chickens can only move on farmland and associate with each other, the farmer can move anywhere and interact with anyone else, and the citizens can move anywhere but the farmland and associate with the farmer and each other. A virus is present and has infected the chickens. As it travels through different hosts, the virus's ID will increase (mutation). Once the ID has reached within a certain range, it will be able to infect the farmer and eventually the citizens.
There are a variety of sliders and graphs. The sliders allow the user to adjust certain things, such as the initial number of chickens and the chance of contracting the flu, which are stated on the labels. The graphs show the changes in the populations of the chickens and humans during the spread of the virus. And the tables show the exact poplutations at that moment.
The farmers are the only humans who can move on the farm and interact with the chickens, and the virus develops in the chickens. Decreasing the area of the farm, there is an extremely small chance for the virus to spread to the humans, because the farmers have a small chance of traveling on the farmland.
There is actually a small chance for the virus to mutate and spread to humans. To increase the chance, increase the area of the farm, the number of farmers, infection rate, and the number of chickens.
In order to improve the accuracy of this model, we could have added wild birds that can interact with the chickens and humans to increase the spread of the Avian Flu. Also, we could have added certain enviromental factors that will influence the spread of the virus.
All of the social science models are similiar to this model, especially the AIDS model.
Created by Ada Taylor, Peitong Duan, and Alexander Lowe-Skillern on March 6, 2008 for the Apprenticeship Program at Shodor Education Foundation.
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