Model Description
This project models the movement of a hurricane. Two versions of the project were created: the first uses a Vensim system model, and the second uses JavaScript and the AgentModel.js library
The Story
In August, a hurricane is coming off the coast of Africa and is heading towards Florida. There are two winds propelling the hurricane: trade winds and westerlies. The trade winds push the hurricane west while the easterlies push the hurricane east. Depending on the difference between the two wind's speed, the hurricane will either move east, west, or north-east. Hurricanes also have a minimum speed of 74 mph and as their speed increases so does their destruction capability. So if a hurricane is on top of a house, depending on its speed--there is some perent chance that the hurricane will be destroyed.
Agents and Shapes
| Agent | Shape | Color |
|---|---|---|
| World | Land | Green |
| Water | Blue | |
| Houses | Safe Home | Red |
| Destroyed Home | Brown | |
| Hurricane | Gray | |
| Counter | Magenta |
Observed Behaviors
When trade winds have a greater speed than westerlies, the hurricane moves west. When the westerlies have a greater speed than the trade winds the hurricane moves east. If the winds have the same speed, the hurricane moves northeast. Also, the speed of a hurricane correlates with how much damage it can make. If the hurricane has a speed less than 74 mph, there is no destruction. If a hurricane has a speed between 74 and 109 mph, a house will be destroyed 20% of the time. If a hurricane has a speed between 110 and 129 mph, there is 40% chance a house will be destroyed. If a hurricane has a speed between 130 and 156 mph, there is a 70% chance that a hurricane will be destroyed. If a hurricane has a speed greater than 156 mph, there is a 90% chance a house will be destroyed.
Hurricane and Wind Speed
The user can manipulate the speed of the hurricane and the winds. By changing the hurricane speed, the chance of a house being destroyed is changed. By changing the wind speed, the direction of the hurricane can change.
Conclusions
Through this project, I was able to gain a better confidence using javascript, and I also learned a lot about hurricanes. There are so many factors that play a role in the path and destruction of a hurricane.