Shodor Computational Science Institute

[ Images from June 11, 1998 ]

Dr. Stevenson opened with a discussion of error. Computers havea very limited set of values they can represent, leaving a finite set in place of the real number continuum. There is a finite gap between computer-representable numbers, machine epsilon, a largest number lambda, and a smallest number sigma. All these depend on the particular computer, and all three cause 'schoolbook mathematics' not to work. They contribute to approximation error, perturbation error, and rounding error. There is also human error, which is usually more important and relevant to why a model does not produce the expected result.

Dr. Warner described the Wilkinson model of what numbers can be represented on a computer. Lambda and sigma, he said, can be computed from epsilon.

He laid out a list of real number axioms. Closure and associativity fail under addition and multiplication; the multiplicative inverse is lost. Distributivity, and therefore algebraic manipulation, also fails. However, the relative error is not usually large.

The result one gets is the exact right answer to the wrong question, participants were told, or the right question perturbed slightly. In some cases, like weather forecasting, these small perturbations in the question can make the final result significantly, even qualitatively, different.

Dr. Warner demonstrated a Java applet showing an RPN calculator to illustrate error in distributed multiplication.

Dr. Panoff reiterated that measurement and human error is usually larger; the straws had 20% error in some cases.

PicturePicture

Returning from a coffee break, participants were challenged to "stand up and count from ten to one backwards." Some participants stood, turned around, and counted "one, two, three..." while others counted "ten, nine, eight...". Others said the counting itself was backwards, but disagreed also about whether up or down constituted backwards. "Who said we have to use the integers?" asked one. "Ten, nine point nine, nine point eight..." Dr. Panoff recited, "Net, enin, thgie, neves..." for his own example. An intern counted "Ten, nine, eight..." and then stood up.

Dr. Hirst returned to a discussion of throwing snowballs, presenting a flowchart. "Why did I show you this diagram?" she asked. "If I weren't mathematically inclined, wouldn't it be easier for me to see what was going on?" That's what Stella does, she explained.

PicturePicture
Dr. Panoff drew a diagram of the falling bunny model on the board. Then Dr. Hirst began recreating the model in Stella. She showed how to build a visual model and add description and equations to it. Stella creates the order-of-equations for you. Then Dr. Hirst and Dr. Panoff went through and built the model. "It's relatively easy to get started and build models. What's hard is explaining what you did." Ways to make the model more accurate were presented, including changing the integration method and reproducing the interval between values. Dr. Panoff and Dr. Hirst showed another model, reproducing rabbits, that illustrated the principle of sensitivity. Dr. Panoff pointed out that the qualitative model for reproducing rabbits looked like the one for accumulating interest on a bank account -- the visual Stella model didn't change though the equations did. Cooling coffee also had a similar model, but required a few changes.

While Stella's graphing capabilities were limited, the suggestion was made that students could copy and paste tables of values into a superior graphing program.

PicturePicture

After lunch, participants began to experiment on their own with Stella. They began by recreating simple models suggested by Shodor staff, then moved on to creating more complicated models of their own.

Returning to the lecture room, Dr. Panoff discussed how changing step size and integration methods can improve the accuracy of a continuous differential equation model. He showed how to easily run a sensitivity analysis in Stella, graphing several copies of the same model with, for example, a constant changed. He also demonstrated Stella's "flight simulator" mode, which allows real-time control of such variables and constants.


Last Update: June 11, 1998
Please direct questions and comments about this page to WebMaster@shodor.org
© Copyright 1998 The Shodor Education Foundation, Inc.