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Project TitleSevere Weather Outbreak Modeling Student Experience
SummaryIn this project, we hope to identify the relationship between simulation duration and the precision in the model forecast when analyzing non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks (primarily straight-line wind driven outbreaks) outbreaks. This project is part of a two-part sequence where this relationship is identified for tornadic and non-tornadic derecho events as part of ongoing outbreak research.
Job DescriptionThe goal of this project is the diagnosis of lead time in non-tornadic severe weather outbreak forecasts when using a high-resolution mesoscale model. The student will be working with the WRF-ARW forecast model at a high spatial and temporal resolution for 10 major non-tornadic outbreaks. Each outbreak will be simulated in initial condition ensemble mode, yielding 15 forecasts for each case at 5 varying lead times to the outbreak (24 hour, 48 hour, 72 hour, 96 hour, and 120 hour), in an effort to ascertain the sensitivity of the spread in the ensemble members to lead time. The student will be utilizing the universal post processor software to formulate severe weather diagnostic variables and will determine their spatial uncertainty metrics using the R software package. Ultimately, this project has the potential to help forecasters with outbreak forecasts by providing additional evidence as to the limit of the forecast ability of severe weather outbreaks at lead times in excess of a day.
Conditions/QualificationsThe student should have some basic programming experience and experience in the Linux environment. The student should have a willingness to learn to use the WRF model and have a solid work ethic, as well as good time-management skills.
Start Date05/01/2016
End Date04/30/2017
LocationDepartment of Geosciences, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS
Taylor Prislovsky